An unexpected increase in the interest rate of the Bank of Canada came as a surprise of this week. This surprise is not only “weekly”, but also easily seems like the “event of the year”. Mario Draghi also noted, not keeping his promise - the discussion of the reduction of QE in September did not take place and it was postponed to October. The dollar remained subject to a “weather forecast”, then to a “political talk show.”
The last week of the month, traditionally boring, will be replaced by the active beginning of August: Non-Farm Payrolls and others are on the horizon ... The dollar continues to remain under political influence, Canada raised the rate, and Australia knew less inflation.
The market got an extra dose of “misunderstandings”. While a number of interest rate increases by the key Central banks are expected, the inflation, necessary to stimulate consumer expenditures, is still chilling out in the shadow of a hot summer. So, NZD and GBP experienced special shocks, their data turned out to be worse than forecasts. The dollar remained in the shadow of politics, and the biggest volatility was brought to the market by Mario Draghi. Don’t wait for tightening from the ECB until late autumn.
The Bank of Canada expectedly hiked the interest rate and, most importantly, gave hope for another hike this year. The dollar suffers from low inflation, and the markets set themselves up to the ECB policy tightening this fall. Quarterly reports begin next week.
Job market reports of Canada and the USA have become the leading topics of the week. If in the former case statistics caused the markets to bargain on the Bank of Canada interest rate increase up to 0.75%, then in the latter case investors entertained doubts about next FRS interest increase rate (that is strange considering futures chart provided by CME Group).
The main volatility of the week, perhaps, can be considered the movement of the pound sterling, which suffered from disagreements between the members of the MPC of the Bank of England: Mark Carney said that it is still too early to raise the interest rate, but the chief economist and some members of the Committee think quite differently.
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