The market got an extra dose of “misunderstandings”. While a number of interest rate increases by the key Central banks are expected, the inflation, necessary to stimulate consumer expenditures, is still chilling out in the shadow of a hot summer. So, NZD and GBP experienced special shocks, their data turned out to be worse than forecasts. The dollar remained in the shadow of politics, and the biggest volatility was brought to the market by Mario Draghi. Don’t wait for tightening from the ECB until late autumn.
The Bank of Canada expectedly hiked the interest rate and, most importantly, gave hope for another hike this year. The dollar suffers from low inflation, and the markets set themselves up to the ECB policy tightening this fall. Quarterly reports begin next week.
Job market reports of Canada and the USA have become the leading topics of the week. If in the former case statistics caused the markets to bargain on the Bank of Canada interest rate increase up to 0.75%, then in the latter case investors entertained doubts about next FRS interest increase rate (that is strange considering futures chart provided by CME Group).
The main volatility of the week, perhaps, can be considered the movement of the pound sterling, which suffered from disagreements between the members of the MPC of the Bank of England: Mark Carney said that it is still too early to raise the interest rate, but the chief economist and some members of the Committee think quite differently.
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The political factor continues to bring volatility to the market. The activity of traders grows due to volatility, as well. I would like to think that the profit also grows, at least in our case it happened exactly: the election results (almost traditionally) fell the pound sterling by two more patterns. In addition, sales at the Canadian NFP pleased, the drop in oil was very pleasantly surprised, and Mario Draghi dotted all the i’s.
The first two days of the summer turned out to be really hot: the dollar rose almost by the pattern on Thursday and collapsed by 100 points on Friday after the publication of the USA labour market report. Why did this happen? The American currency stubbornly ignored the discrepancy between the forecast and the fact of Non-Farm Payrolls before, didn’t it?