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The Last FEDi

The Last FEDi

The conflict prevention system saves from damages this Friday by a Non-Farm Payrolls publication. On Wednesday, the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place and, according to market expectations, the interest rate will be raised to 1.5% (+ 0.25%). What to do in this case, how to behave? In addition, we counted 7 more indicators, which definitely should not be missed. The schedule is dense: Christmas huddles the calendar for the next two weeks.

Last week, negotiations on Brexit advanced. The market ignores the data of Non-Farm Payrolls.

“Pound” reached a breakthrough in negotiations on Brexit, which was also expressed in the breakthrough of its quotes. But much work remains to be done ahead: new trade agreements between Britain and the EU are on the horizon. Key British indicators of the week are published in a neutral way:

UK Markit Services PMI  53.8 (-1.2)           55

UK PMI Construction       53.1 (2.1)             51

UK Manufacturing Production [m/m]       0.1%      0.1 %

The Eurozone is still getting hung up on the policy of Germany, which on Thursday took a step closer to resolving the political crisis after the country's largest opposition party supported the start of negotiations with the Conservative Party headed by Merkel regarding the formation of the future government.

Bank of Canada did not justify the mood of the market. The Canadian dollar fell on Wednesday after the announcement of the Bank of Canada, which was cautious. Despite the recent improvement in economic data, the regulator maintains a neutral position and tempered expectations of an interest rate increase at the start of the new year.

CA BOC Interest Rate      1%          1 %

All the volatility that you could observe came from accompanying CA BOC Rate Statement minutes.

Tax reform on the march in the USA. Recently, the US dollar is growing amid hopes that the tax reform can acquire the form of law by the end of this year; before the Senate of the US Congress passed a tax reform bill on Saturday.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI           57.4 (-1.6)      59

Nonfarm as always showed their teeth, the market completely ignored the NFP data in favor of the increase in wages.

US Average Hourly Earnings [y/y]              2.5% (-0.2%)

US Average Weekly Hours            34.5 (0.1)

US Average Hourly Earnings [m/m]

US Average Hourly Earnings [m/m]

US Average Hourly Earnings [m/m]

US Average Hourly Earnings [m/m]         0.2% (-0.1%)

US Nonfarm Payrolls      228 (+33)            195

Report on transmitted trading signals


CA NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT [01/12/2017] - Sell 2

Pay attention to the important messages inside the autoclick, which we often transmit from the side of the server. For example, for this indicator, we reported an increased risk of trade, since at the same time of the publication, the statistics bureau of Canada provided data on the increase in GDP. Everything was nice: the data showed a one-way direction of the signal. However, do not lose vigilance.

UK PMI CONSTRUCTION [04/12/2017] - Buy 2

US Nonfarm Payrolls went into conflict with US Average Hourly Earnings wage data and instead of growth (+ 33K deviation by NFP) the dollar fell (-0.1% by US Average Hourly Earnings).

THERE ARE NO TRADES, as the conflict prevention system has worked.

The last FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve this year

The main event of the next week (and December as a whole) will be the last meeting of the FOMC this year. As expected, the Fed's interest rate will be raised for the third time in a year, and the chances for an increase are already taken into account in the quotations of the market by 100%. For example, the indicator of futures sentiment from the CME Group confidently holds a 90% chance of raising the rate to 1.5%

From December 11 to December 22, a pre-Christmas marathon for the publication of important indicators of key trading pairs will be held. This means only one thing - we are faced with a dense series of trading signals, as all important events are shifted to the first half of December for understandable reasons.

Trade Signals Calendar can always be found on the website.

Already on Monday, the exotic publication of Norwegian inflation, NO Core Inflation, will be released, read the description of the indicator on its page, and understand the spread.

On Tuesday, the inflationary marathon will be supported by Sweden and the United Kingdom: SE CPI and UK CPI

On Wednesday, all attention will be paid to the level of British salaries in the labor market data publication package: UK Average Earnings. On the same day, later, a core key consumer price indicator US CPI will be published. It should be recalled that this indicator is the only indicator that the Fed is now having questions about (the market's attention to it is exacerbated). Actually, we will hear comments on this matter from Janet Yellen herself in the evening, when the FOMC meeting will be concluded.

What will happen at the Fed meeting on Wednesday, what to expect? Absolutely nothing, if you are counting on a move due to the fact that the rate will be raised. There is no point; the market has long been digesting all this. The fact, which is equal to the forecast, is not interesting to anyone. It will be interesting to try to answer the classical question, what will follow next, how many increases will be in 2018, will they be, what mood does Jannet Yellen have on the eve of the end of her powers, how the Fed sees the inflation perspectives, how the Fed assesses the perspectives for tax reform from the Trump administration... All attention to rhetoric.

On Thursday, the Australian labor market indicator with the nuances of the release of AU Employment Change - its publication on its personal page should be feared. The market will carefully consider these figures because the Reserve Bank of Australia previously focused on it (sales as a result of the deviation of the fact of the news below the forecast may be especially interesting).

On Thursday, the Bank of Norway will hold a meeting and decide on the rates: NO Norges Bank Interest Rate, and the United Kingdom refreshes UK Retail Sales data (do not miss this indicator). Then, the meeting will be held by the Bank of England. At the previous meeting, the Bank increased its interest rate to 0.5% (+ 0.25%). Of course, the changes are certainly not expected, but look very closely at the text minutes and the voting structure “for/against”, these data can bring additional volatility.

Again on Thursday: after the ECB meeting, Mario Draghi will hold a press conference. Moreover, at the same time, important data of American retailers will be published: US Retail Sales [m/m]

As you can see, the schedule is rather dense and requires your attention. 

It will be recalled that you are always free to receive additional information on the pages of each indicator, administration comments and messages inside the trading application Fxnewskiller.