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AU RBA Interest Rate

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Australia
AU Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate

The decision on the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia is made at the meeting of the bank. It is published on a monthly basis, but 11 times a year, January, as a rule, is skipped. It is promising for trading compared to the interest rates in other countries. Simultaneously, minutes of the meeting which can significantly influence the market are published.

Features of the publication

Data are provided on time
Simultaneously, the text minutes are published
Reaction of quotes is often in the minutes
Used for communication between RBA and markets
Interest rate rarely changes
Analysts make mistakes more often than other similar rates

How to trade AU RBA Interest Rate

If the data is above the forecast, then AUDUSD grows and vice versa.

Trading under the interest rate of the Reserve Bank of Australia is one of the most pleasant since it does not contain any additional threats. The only thing that needs to be checked before publication is the quality of the forecasts. Sometimes it happens that different sources estimate the chances of changing the interest rate differently, which in turn can influence the reaction of quotations. But still, these are rare exceptions to the rules, about which we leave additional comments on the site, on this page.

Often traders are confused: if the forecast implies a change in the interest rate (for example, its growth), whether there will be a trading signal in case if the rate is raised according to the forecast. The correct answer is that there will be no signal since the data came out at the forecast level, which has long been taken into account by the prices. The price takes into account the anticipated forecast long before the publication, at the time of publication the price can be adjusted only if the forecast did not come true.

Parallel to the decision of the interest rate, the Reserve Bank of Australia also publishes the text minutes of its meeting that cannot participate in algorithmic trading but can participate in market volatility.

When the rate is provided at the level of forecasts, but at the same time the price has moved significantly, it is necessary to pay attention to the minutes of the Bank of Australia!

As a rule, minutes are published with minor deviations in the text in relation to the previous reaction, but when such changes nevertheless take place, AUD starts to move. In the minutes, particular attention is given to the Regulator's forecasts. The key forecast variables are the expectations of GDP growth as well as the inflation expectations. Both for the first and for the second, strengthening of positive expectations of growth will be supported by the Australian dollar.

So, if the rate came out according to forecasts, read the minutes of the meeting. The keys to volatility are in them!

 

There is such a thing as the Australian delay when data from Australia, in the absence of a formal data publishing process, comes late.

So, this is not relevant for publication of the interest rate of the RBA, it is published on time!

History of publications

Date:
03/03/2015
Signal:
Buy 3
Cons:
2.00
Fact:
2.25
Dev:
0.25
React:
20
Direct:
Up
Pair:
AUDUSD
Others
Date:
03/02/2015
Signal:
Sell 3
Cons:
2.50
Fact:
2.25
Dev:
-0.25
React:
70
Direct:
Down
Pair:
AUDUSD
Others
Date:
07/05/2013
Signal:
Sell 3
Cons:
3.00
Fact:
2.75
Dev:
-0.25
React:
Direct:
Pair:
AUDUSD

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