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US CPI - Core [m/m]

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United States
US Core Consumer Price Index

The US consumer price index is used as an indicator of inflation in the country. The core CPI index is especially popular; it is corrected for seasonal and volatile fluctuations. It is used by the FRS in its decisions.

Features of the publication

FRS draws attention to it
Affects the decision on the interest rate
In some periods it has a weak influence
Core CPI is used for trading
Sometimes it comes along with Retail Sales

How to trade US CPI - Core [m/m]

If the data is published above the forecast, USDJPY grows.

Core index excludes the price fluctuations of energy carriers and food as volatile variables, which gives the market a smoother and more accurate picture of the overall inflationary background in the country.

The consumer price index is certainly used to estimate inflation. As a rule, the central bank (in this case this is the Federal Reserve System) has its own inflation targeting. The inflation targeting helps the bank to assess the situation and take actions to achieve it, if necessary. 2% for the FRS is the traditional inflation targeting.

If the inflation is weak and is below the targeting level, as a rule, measures are taken to stimulate the economy, the printing press is turned on, and the interest rate is reduced. If inflation is high, everything happens on the contrary: the rate is raised, and the amount of the money supply must be reduced, thereby increasing the value of money in circulation.

At some points, when the FRS is particularly close to the moment of changing its interest rate (and, as a rule, the press constantly informs about it), we can use excessively low trading triggers since the market's interest in the indicator is especially high. Monitor the fundamental background and market sentiments before the release.

Pay attention that the schedule of the indicator's release is such that CoreCPI can be published simultaneously with the American retail sales. In this case, both indicators should be accepted for trading, as there can be a conflict between them. As a rule, a conflict prevention system is used in such cases, it takes both values, checks for a conflict, and then issues a weighted trading signal.

History of publications

Date:
11/10/2018
Signal:
Sell 1
Cons:
0.20
Fact:
0.10
Dev:
-0.10
React:
8
Direct:
Down
Pair:
USDJPY
Best entry
Others
Date:
13/09/2018
Signal:
Sell 1
Cons:
0.20
Fact:
0.10
Dev:
-0.10
React:
8
Direct:
Down
Pair:
USDJPY
Others
Date:
10/05/2018
Signal:
Sell 1
Cons:
0.20
Fact:
0.10
Dev:
-0.10
React:
15
Direct:
Down
Pair:
USDJPY
Best entry
Worst entry
Others

Comments

Comments (5)

  • Mark Arnaus's picture
    Mark Arnaus

    The data is dispersed for more than two seconds between Core CPI and Retail Sales that was published simultaneously :(time-out for system conflict prevention

    Jul 14, 2017
  • anon
    Ann (not verified)

    Thanks Mark,
    Is it still safe to trade USDJPY today?

    Sep 14, 2017
  • Mark Arnaus's picture
    Mark Arnaus

    Hello!
    Why you afraid it today?

    Sep 14, 2017
  • anon
    Darkforex (not verified)

    This click was slow. 5 seconds after release. How was your results?

    Dec 13, 2017
  • Mark Arnaus's picture
    Mark Arnaus

    Yes, today there was some delay from the primary provider. You can compare results from the users with screenshots posted above.

    Dec 13, 2017

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